Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Who will win Kona?

well I'll admit it I'm a tri addict/ pundit. I spend my hours at the office between customers and projects scouring Slowtwitch and Xtri and now with Rutger Beke succumbing to a foot injury I'm debating on who my picks for Kona will be. So with out futher ado here are my favorites, dark horses and sentimentals.

The Men's Race

Favorites.

Macca (AUS): Ok no brainer Chris "Badass" McCormack is at the top of my favorites list. Insane run split, not afraid to take crazy risks when everything goes right you end up with a victory lap marathon like 2007 if it doesn't well...just check out the 2002 You Tube Highlights.

Craig Alexanader (AUS): If Macca's off this guy is on. Last year his insane marathon split ( and his ability to tackle the cruel Hawaiian heat) gave him the victory he's fast he's strong and you know he's going to kick ass and take names.

Terrenzo Bonzone (NZL): Ok I have to put a kiwi in here and sadly it's not Cam Brown. Bonzone finished second in his 1st full Ironman in Taupo in March. He's got a solid run and bike split and he's been testing out the Shiv with Macca in the lava fields. Granted Taupo and Kona are completely different races....

Normann Stadler (GER): He's training with Chris Carmichael, he owns the fastest Kona bike split ever, and with Sindballe retiring the only real threat he has to his lead in to T-2 is Chris Lieto. Unlike Lieto's track record he has been able to hold on through out the run beating Peter Reid in 2004 and Macca in 2006, last year it looked like he was going to do it again until he cramped up in the lava fields but still he took a suck it up pill and finished 12th a far cry from his 2005 flat f**king tire meltdown.

Dark Horse:
Andy Potts (USA): Ok the Ironman isn't won in the swim but still Potts held on the finish 7th in his first Ironman after leading the swim. I think he can shatter the myth the the Ironman can't be won by a stellar performance in the swim ( granted you really do need a bitching bike split to build a coushion.)...the question is will 2009 be his year.

Sentimental Favorites:

Cam Brown (NZL): This guy has finshed consistently in the top-5 and as high as second. He's not getting any younger and I would love to see him win this thing once before he rides into the sunset.

Chris Lieto (USA): With the arrival of Andy Potts last year and his inability to handle the Kona Heat Lieto dropped from second overall to oblivion. The preceding year he led a good chunk of the marathon only to succumb to the heat in the energy lab where he lost the lead the Macca, and then highest American rights to Tim DeBoom. Put in two heart wrenching losses to Craig Alexander at Hawaii 70.3 and Boisie 70.3 and I can't help to feel for the guy. Seriously if he rolls into T-2 with a 15 min. Lead and manages to beat Crowie in flat out sprint for the line I will be one extremely happy camper.

The women

Favorites:

Chrissie Wellington (GBR): Got a flat tire lost 10 minutes on the bike and still managed to comeback and spank the women's field. Seriously the last Chick to win by that much was a Doped up Nina Kraft...who then got the title stripped from her. Add to it she's an absolute girl scout who was aiding starving kids in the third world before she took up this hobby and it's hard not to cheer for her.

Dark Horses
Ok here's my list of the runner's up.... I mean people who might have a shot at Chrissie

Belinda Granger (AUS): She won Hawaii 70.3 she has a fast swim a fast bike, and a solid run. Seriously if Wellington's drive train explodes in the Lava fields she'd be a contender.

Mirinda Cafree (AUS): A shit load of 70.3 wins and a victory at REV3 I'd take her seriously.

Dutch chick who was 2nd in 08. I would like to put up the chicks who were second last year but I have no clue how to spell Valvendarlarken or what ever her name is...but all I know is she set the day's fastes bike split in 08, again if something happens to Wellington she'd be right in the thick of it.

Sentimentals:

Bree Wee (USA): If this thing was scripted this would be the perfect feel good story for the NBC highlights...well ok she could be battling lifethreatening illness, or have been orphaned at bith.
She lives in Kona, she trains on course, she's a mom, she's been through divorce, it would be the first USA win in Kona for the women in Godknows how long and for it to be a local I think the island might just explode.
Natascha Badmann (Sui) She was unbeatable, then there was food poisoning then She crashed, she trashed her shoulder, they told her she would never race again, she came back last year and came about 15 miles short of finishing. This year she's in better form, and seriously I would love to see a photo of her passing the new Golden Girl at mile 25 of the marathon with that trade mark smile...granted age is starting to show....and the era of the Swiss Miss might be over.
Nina Kraft (Ger): ok I know we're supposed to forever shun dopers and wish death and plauge upon their houses but it's been 5 years. She's done her time, it's easy to understand why she did it and she did come forward quickly, there was no long drawn out proceedure she came forward, she confessed within 24 hours took her whacks and came back. She's good in the heat, she's won IMKY and IMFL she was battling the likes of Badmann a Lori Bowden in their haydays...I would like to see her win, just once, so she could prove that she was always capable of winning and didn't need the goddamn EPO to do it.
Alrght those are my picks I know I left off some great athletes I know I started some contorversey with the last pick, but there's my list. Where's yours?
R.D.

4 comments:

KO said...

What Qualifter do u think you'll do??

I'm new to the Triathlon world, I am a police officer that wants to get back in shape, and I have always admired Triathletes, Now I have put in motion my quest to do a triathlon and someday The Ironman at Kona....

Follow me if u like

http://apolicemanslife.com

KO

Bullet said...

I've thought about this as well, but man, you've done your P's and Q's. Now I LOVE Chrissie Wellington, not just for what she does in triathlon but that she's an amazing person and has a heart bigger than Alaska. BUT, I think this is Granger's year. She's only gotten better over the course of the year and I think she's going to be on form in Kona. I think it was a mistake for Chrissie to drop her coach. She's going to see that being self-coached was not the best decision. When she's on, she's the most dominating athlete in sports, hands down. That's in all of sports. On the men's side, I'm pulling for Torrenzo this year. It'd be great to see, but I'm not willing to beat the farm that he's going to pull it off. As for who I think will win: Macca's only beaten Crowie one time ever. I think Macca is plenty motivated and has all the tools, but I think Crowie is a little better. He's a smart racer when a mean kick in the end, just ask Lieto. Bold predictions - Stadler DNF's, Potts is in top three after the bike, Badman is once again too far behind after the swim to make a difference. Bad shoulder keeps her down. Faris Alsultan is credited with a podium finish on the women's side for his long hair and speedo.

Runner Leana said...

You know, I think I'm going with Alexander and Carfrae. Those are my picks! I'm seriously pulling for Bree though since she absolutely rocks!!

Weaky6 said...

Here is the darkest horse: Tim DeBoom, 2X World Champion. Beware of the DeBoom! He will sneak up and make a top 3 appearance is my prediction. His come back is for real. Watch it.